Editorial Defining President Musharraf's 'turmoil'
The Supreme Court is getting ready to hear a number of petitions against the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) and has named a bench of judges along with known jurists as amici curiae to match the "seriousness" which the NRO has assumed in the public eye. As the court announced that it would start hearing the case after 21 days, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry has clarified that till the pronouncement on corruption cases involved is made, no benefits will accrue to the affected parties.
The reactions to the new development have been interesting. President General Pervez Musharraf has repeated his "request" to Ms Benazir Bhutto to postpone her return to Pakistan to avoid "turmoil" – his chosen word to express a complex problem. He says he has not received Ms Bhutto's reaction to his request, but the PPP spokespersons have already rejected the request, and preparations are on to welcome her in Karachi amid massive security measures after Al Qaeda, as conveyed through its deputy Baitullah Mehsud, threatened to kill her.
The "turmoil" the president wants to avoid is politically complex. It is not so much Al Qaeda he is currently dreading because that is a longer-term problem; nor can he be expected to ruminate too much on the personal safety of Ms Bhutto. It is the "turmoil" that is brewing inside the party he has been propping up and canvassing for quite blatantly over the past months, the PMLQ and its anti-PPP partners in power. While the attorney general, Malik Muhammad Qayyum, says the NRO will be implemented because it has not been "stayed" by the Supreme Court, the PMLQ leaders most upset by the prospect of facing a PPP led personally by Ms Bhutto consider the NRO as already defunct.
The old hackles are rising and the country is once again getting ready to settle into its crippling polarities. As passions begin to run on familiar lines, a report says that the tomb of the founder of the PPP, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto at Naodero in Sindh, carries abusive graffiti against him. The Sindh chief minister has been most aggressive in his dislike of the "reconciliation" the president is bent upon effecting with Ms Bhutto. He sees a new political combination coalescing between the PPP and the MQM and finds himself once again consigned to the limbo of Tharparkar with acts of omission and commission during his tenure returning to haunt him.
Reflexes in the PMLQ have also sharpened after realising that, despite all kinds of passionate condemnation in the media, the PPP is bound to retain its hold over 30 percent of the electorate, which can manifest itself in all sorts of ways in the January 2008 general elections. So the PMLQ leaders are basking in the media-unleashed furore that the NRO has "let the corrupt run away with public money". They want to scuttle the efforts being made by a besieged President Musharraf to widen his political support-base as he fights his lonely battle against Al Qaeda in the Tribal Areas.
Media anchors have typically glossed over the origin of the corruption cases in Pakistan and have carried along the "moral outrage" expressed by those supporting the Lal Masjid revolt and the lawyers' movement, as they once again go into paroxysms over the NRO. The hype has been so intense that public opinion is now totally geared to the tribal trait of "honour" rather than the democratic condition of "compromise". There is no regard paid to the need of safeguarding the country's bipartisan system. A "rejectionism" which will ultimately go in favour of the extremist elements informs the thinking encouraged by the media in Pakistan. "Deal" is a swear word presented as such in the publicity "inserts" of one dominant TV news channel.
The love of confrontation and conflict is on the upswing in Pakistan. Apparently, the only way our "honour" can be saved is by refusing to agree to political compromise and reconciliation. Everyone wants martyrdom without any solution based on the democratic acceptance of "imperfections"; no one thinks of the meagre resource of talent and wisdom in the country's political system. The tired myth of the "unerring wisdom of the 160 million people" is being repeated by all and sundry on TV channels, without admitting that the 160 million have repeatedly elected the same corrupt politicians again and again, giving the lie to the claim made in their favour.
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Vilifying Benazir Bhutto serves Chaudhry Shujaat, Baitul Mehsud, MMA, and MQM interests
Iqbal Tareenr
It is understandable when Taliban, MQM and Pakistan Muslim League (Q) folks hate Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto's guts but it is beyond me when I see so called pro-democracy groups and individuals engage into
slanderous campaign against her.
I hope these born again "Desktop Revolutionaries" realize that their mudslinging movement against Benazir Bhutto advances cause of Baitullah Mehsud, Chaudhry Shujaat, Arbab Ghulam Rahim, and MQM. By throwing stones at MBB, they are not only strengthening Musharraf's hold on power but they are weakening real cause of restoration of democracy in Pakistan. In my opinion liberty and democracy in Pakistan has a long list of predators but Benazir Bhutto is not one of them.
The real enemies of people are those who have captured power under military rule and through takeovers. They are the ones who would prefer to retain uncontested rule without losing even an ounce of it. As far as remaining political parties are concerned, majority of them are either creation of agencies or they are doing business with their blessings. The only party that significantly challenges establishment’s monopoly on power and shares it with the masses is Pakistan People's Party. That is why the real beneficiaries of Musharraf’s rule including PML (Q), Arbab Rahim, MQM, and Mullahs hate MBB’s return to Pakistan.
I hope these so called critics realize that Musharraf has not conceded to MBB's return to Pakistan out of mere admiration for her. It has taken MBB years of perseverance, sacrifices, separation from her family and heroic hard work of democracy loving people around the world that has forced Musharraf's hand to change of status. The Chaudhry Bros. & Co., MQM, Taliban, and Mullahs will have field goal if by any hook or crook they can prevent MBB's return.
Recent ploy by Musharraf team to delay Benazir Bhutto's return to Pakistan on October 17th is yet another trick to create confusion and demoralize pro-democracy forces in Pakistan. It speaks a lot about real losers who are determined to stop Benazir at any cost. Asking Benazir Bhutto to delay her return is also aimed at creating a Nawaz Sharif like situation but without resorting to an open confrontation.
Although Pakistan celebrates its annual anniversary without any failure but it had failed to advance beyond its inception that took place 6o years ago. Sanity requires that we honestly dice and slice the current status; identify various options to arrive at the most sane and peaceful resolution of Pakistan's stagnant existence.
REALITES ON THE GROUND
1. Decades of direct and indirect army rule, unrepresentative governments, especially last eight years of combined Musharraf, PML (Q), MQM, and Mullah Rule has enlarged the gap between rich and poor of the nation to its max. Advances in electronic media has shrunk the distances but it has also provided most modern tools of manipulation
to unrepresentative governments thus disarming and deflecting rising public opinion against its hold on power.
2.Pakistan being a frontline state against increasing threat of Talban and their growing influence in Pakistan and the region provides General Musharraf a favorite status with western countries. Although it is no secret that General Musharraf has successfully leveraged this threat as an insurance policy to continue his grip on power but in absence of any viable alternative, the General remains to be the only game in town and an important ally in war against terrorism.
3. Traditional friends of Pakistan, regional countries and powerful Muslim states will not allow imploding of Pakistan from within. In a national chaotic situation it could be any body's game thus leading to loss of innocent lives of unarmed and peaceful citizens of the country. Good students of history should recall lessons learnt from the French Revolution. Mass uprisings do not necessarily bring democracies and order. Chaos will create unstable Pakistan thus triggering a dominos effect where one Muslim state after another might fall in the hands of Taliban rule.
4. Those who know history will vouch that anyone who takes over power by violent means does not relinquish it so peacefully. We also know that the violent takeovers of government rarely produce democracies.
5. If you value liberties and are concerned about the freedoms under Musharraf rule, you aint seen nothin yet. Make no mistake the Taliban's Afghan Model of governance is no picnic. Under Taliban rule, the first thing to go will be the Internet, next to follow will be TV and Media, and then the current judicial system will be replaced by mobile Sharia courts.
6. APC’s failure to provide a unified, doable, and credible solution to the current constitutional and political crisis has put a damper on popular hopes. Nawaz Sharif's poor execution of his comeback-strategy cracks in MMA, and despicable reaction against Nawaz Sharif's deportation proved that APC is not ready to pose any significant challenge to Musharraf's powerful machinery. At least not in current situation.
7. Contrary to his public stance, Maulana Fazal-ur-Rahman's (Maulana Machiavelli) vacillating stand on resignations revealed his real allegiance. Mysterious absence of APC leadership from Pakistan during Nawaz Sharif's arrival and repeated expulsions of Imran Khan and other APC leaders from province of Sindh by MQM government exposed a huge gap between their rhetoric and real power to act. Maulana Machiavelli's true colors vindicated Benazir Bhutto's stand on her refusal to team with the Maulana. Time will tell Mian Nawaz Sharif should not have cut away from MRD to form a handicap group with highly opportunistic and unpredictable Mullahs.
8.Contrary to wild speculations and popular wishes, Pakistan Army leadership stood united behind General Musharraf by either blessing his actions or remaining indifferent to his strikes against the opposition during the recent political crisis.
9. Successfully pinning down possible reaction from Mr. Sharif's deportation brought PML (Q) and MQM closer to Musharraf's ear. If Musharraf had his own way, he would never let Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto step on Pakistani soil ever. He will love to remain surrounded by gang of political bouncers who are willing to do any hounding for him.
10. Icing on the cake and badly needed victory to General Musharraf was delivered when the Supreme Court cleared his way to run for another term on September 28th. This was done by the very Supreme Court whose Chief Justice- a people's hero conveniently detached himself from nation's most critical constitutional decision thus leaving the court's panel hanging heavy on one side. The 6 to 3 ruling, which dismissed number of petitions seeking to remove Musharraf off the ballot, made it difficult for rivals to keep him from winning another five years in office.
OPTIONS
I see an adrenaline rush in many Desktop Revolutionaries who are trying to look cute politically. But the question is how do you make any decent difference on the ground if the objective is to make a change and not merely writing about it? There are different sets of responsibilities for those who believe in Desktop Revolution and those who have responsibility to bring about changes on the ground. Here is the set of options available to people of Pakistan:
1. Do nothing and let the pack of Chaudhry Brother, MQM, and Mullahs continue consolidation of their power under army rule.
2. Whip-up popular uprisings, civil strife, and chaos in the hope that
a perfect government will be awaiting at the end of tunnel.
3. Adopt a peaceful quest for transition from nominal democracy to representative democracy that guarantees civil liberty and welfare for ordinary people.
REASONABLE PURSUIT
I support the 3rd option even though the road leading to its accomplishment may look bumpy. In my opinion the only party that has a shot at bringing about this change is Pakistan People's Party and that also under the leadership of Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto. It would be highly blissful for people of Pakistan if Mian Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan give up their betting on MMA and joined Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto in her bid for restoring representative government in Pakistan.
Forcing change through violent means will be counterproductive. No matter which way we look at it, if there is anything consistent about Pakistan, it is the constant growth in the power of military and bureaucracy and not the strengthening of civic institutions. By shooting a few emails at each other, Desktop Revolutionaries can't scare this giant away. Change on the ground requires much more than just a few movements of mouse and keyboard strokes.
Although the recent heroic movement of Pakistani attorneys deserves the real Kudos but re-instatement of Chief Justice took most of steam out of it. Pakistanis are not ready to engage into fist fighting with their children in the uniform. Record shows that the Generals will not hesitate using them against the masses to protect themselves.
If anyone thinks that the judiciary and lawyers alone no matter how noble there cause seems to be will be able to bring about a sea change in Pakistan, they are mistaken. Instead of waging your war against Benazir Bhutto and Pakistan People's Party, engage into a progressive and pro-people alliance with her. Your rage against Benazir Bhutto is starting to sound similar in tone and tanner to that of Chaudhry Shujaat, diehard MQMites, Arbab Rahim, and Baitul Mahmud. If that's what you really want to accomplish than say it and don't pretend as if you are really longing for representative governance and guaranteed liberties in Pakistan.
If you have a better intention on mind then let me remind you that” The road to hell is paved with good intentions". You simply don't succeed in doing the good things you intend. You will have to work towards achieving it on a much deeper level by creating the capacities to do the things you should. Shah Abdul Latif Bhittai - a most famous Sindhi sufi poet may have a good piece of advice warning you against barking at the wrong tree. He said:
“Kashay teeru kamaan maan, mian maar na moon,
Moon mein aaheen toon mataan tuhinjo ee tokhay laGay"
English translation would mean: Do not target me with your arrow – you may end up hurting yourself because you are in me"
I urge you to make up your mind and decide what side are you on?
Note: Term "Desktop revolutionaries" is coined by a good friend
Murtaza Solangi.
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Talking Points Regarding Ethnicity Based Discrimination
1.The Executive has the power to commute sentence of guilty and withdraw cases against those not proved guilty.
2.It is a fact that Punjab’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was proven guilty of corruption and treason. The court refused to intervene.
3.It is a fact that 11 years of a witch-hunt could prove nothing against a Prime Minister from Sindh. Yet the court mood is ugly.
4.A Prime Minister from Sindh was hanged.
5.A Prime Minister from Punjab was not hanged.
6.Governor (S) was absconder in a murder case. He was made Governor and the court did not intervene.
7. The Cabinet has admitted that the cases were politically motivated as have the President and Prime Minister, but the court has chosen to intervene and are told its “mood is ugly”.
8.Forty PPP workers gave their lives to protect Chief Justice from political victimization. Judiciary should be fair and just and reciprocate upholding the principle of ending political victimization.
9.It is unfortunate that prejudice and discrimination runs so deeply in our country that double standards are applied to the Prime Minister from Punjab proven guilty and to the Prime Minister from Sindh who has defended and proven her innocence.
10. Pakistan’s unity can only be threatened by such double standards. Let us hope the court does not discriminate when dealing with executive actions relating to the Prime Ministers depending on their ethnic background.
11. Anyhow we expect the court to do justice equally and demonstrate fairness when dealing with executive actions relating to Prime Ministers from different ethnic grounds so Pakistan is strengthened.
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NRO Points
1. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is the symbol for democracy and civilian rule. The party’s negotiations with General Musharraf are aimed at an orderly transition to democracy.
2. The PPP recognizes that protests in the streets lead to a loss of life, liberty and livelihood even when the protests are peaceful from the viewpoint of pro-democracy activists. We have only used protests as a last option when all other doors are closed. Our goal from the outset is to set the course for a successful transition to democracy and political marginalization of the anti-people and extremist forces.
3. Keeping in view the above, and the interest of the people of Pakistan and the civilized world, the PPP has negotiated with the Musharraf regime the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), which has recently been promulgated.
4. The NRO and other public declarations is a broad package of reforms that facilitates the transition to democracy in Pakistan. Its very preamble acknowledges the abuses that have occurred under dictatorship by stating that "it is expedient to promote national reconciliation, foster mutual trust and confidence amongst holders of public office and remove the vestiges of political vendetta and victimization…and to make the electoral process more transparent." Due to the untiring efforts of the PPP towards democracy, the nation has got:
a). A public agreement by General Musharraf before the Supreme Court of Pakistan to resign his position as Chief of Army Staff and to take his oath of office as President, should he be reelected, as a civilian.
b) Part of an important electoral reform demanded by political parties and groups representing the civil society to prevent rigging and vote counting fraud in subsequent election, by amending laws to provide that “after consolidation of results, the Returning Officer shall give to such contesting candidates and their election agents as are present during the consolidation proceedings, a copy of the result of the count notified to the Commission immediately against proper receipt and shall also post a copy thereof to the other candidates and election agents.”
c) Addressing the problem of governmental intimidation undoing the will of the electorate, as was the case in the General Elections of 2002, a Parliamentary Committee on Ethics will be created. The Committee will prevent intimidation of members of the National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies by the government to cross party lines under coercive threat of charges and imprisonment on trumped up political charges as has occurred in the past, most notably in the Assembly elections of 2002.
Furthermore, the Parliamentary Committee on Ethics protecting Parliamentarians and thereby ensuring the sanctity of the assembly’s popular mandate, will -- in an extraordinary extension of democracy -- recognize the role in democratic governance of the Opposition. Members of the Committee on Ethics will be chosen on the recommendation of the Leader of the House and Leader of the Opposition, with equal representation from both sides.
d) An agreement by the regime to end unproven from prosecution, against Parliamentarians of all political parties who were “falsely involved for political reasons or though political victimization” during the years prior to 1999 but never convicted. This provision applies to parliamentarians associated with all major political parties in Pakistan, including those from the opposition parties such as PML (N) led by Mr Nawaz Sharif.
4. Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto could have secured an arrangement favorable to herself long ago. Instead she endured exile and a psychological war campaign while her husband suffered eight and a half years in prison courageously refusing a personal arrangement for a political principle (The call to drop politically motivated cases is enshrined in the Charter of Democracy as well as in the resolutions by the Pakistan Bar Association, the Alliance for Restroration to Democracy (ARD) and the major political parties). Mohtarma Bhutto has insisted on measures to prevent political re-engineering through false cases as well as in future to prevent horse-trading. The PPP is committed to fight against corruption through the rule of law.
5. The PPP has upheld its democratic principles in negotiations with the regime. First and above all, it insists on free, fair and transparent elections, supervised by a neutral caretaker government and an independent Election Commission.
6. The PPP continues to insist on a civilian president without uniform, restoration of the balance of powers between president and prime minister and article 58-2(b) of the Constitution enabling the President to undermine the sovereignty of Parliament (which led to the dysfunctional democracy of the nineties), and an end of the military imposed ban on two-term priming ministers from running for a third term.
7. The PPP negotiations are not structured around any “power sharing” concept. The issue of which political party would form the government will be determined only by the people of Pakistan through a fair general elections.
8. The PPP believes that transition to democracy, which begins with the National Reconciliation Ordinance, will take place in a phased manner. Some critical steps have already been taken, like the arrangement for the shedding of military uniform. Other key steps on electoral reform, incorporating the recommendations of The Citizen’s Group on Electoral Politics, which will insure the transparency and sanctity of the forthcoming National Assembly and Provincial Assembly elections are still being discussed.
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Are we reconciled?
FS.A. Qureshir
THE National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) appears to have run into a
storm of protest and derision from the press and civil society. The criticism primarily is that it will permit politicians to launder money that they could not account for.
It has, therefore, been labelled with various epithets like daylight robbery and an abdication of principles on the part of both Musharraf and the Pakistan People's Party. This is so despite people having called for national reconciliation for the past few years.
It strikes me that in any system of justice such a law would be curious. The reason would be that people would ask, why not resolve the issues through the established judicial system.
The root of the problem is that we do not have a judicial system that can be trusted by anyone in this country. Traditionally, apart from a few individual exceptions, this whole system has been carrying out the dictates of the military in Pakistan. If a civil servant, a judge or a police officer dared to defy the military, they paid a heavy price. The list is surprisingly long.
Does anybody remember Justice Safdar Shah who as a sitting judge of the
Supreme Court had to escape to London just because he disagreed with the then military regime? His analysis that Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had not murdered Nawab Kasuri was legally clear and correct.
Almost 30 years later, instead of Safdar Shah's commemorative statue standing outside the Supreme Court it is the Sharifuddin Pirzada protégés who still wield influence within the hallowed portals of the
building.
Many of these gentlemen actually owe their elevation to a system which has heavily been influenced by individuals like Justice Anwarul Haq and Justice Nasim Hasan Shah.
I have nothing against those two gentlemen but they practically admitted judicial murder by calling Bhutto's execution a political decision. In short, the current judicial system comprises personnel tainted by Provisional Constitutional Orders that dignified military rule. This was a factor that the PPP could not reverse in its short tenures and which Nawaz Sharif as heir to Zia quite enjoyed.
If anyone believes that things have changed they should remember that the current top law officer of the country, the attorney-general, is famous not for his legal analysis but for the engaging conversations he held over the telephone and which found their way to the Internet.
As a sitting judge these conversations with Mr Khalid Anwar, the law minister at the time, were remarkable for their frank appraisal of what awaited the PPP leadership in cases before him.People who, therefore,
argue that the cases should be allowed to go to court are either simplistic or basing their analysis on two false assumptions:
a) that the cases against the PPP leadership are all proven even before they are heard;
b) that the courts will decide these cases fairly.As far as the second assumption is concerned when we talk about the judicial system it does not refer to judges alone. Actually, it means the criminal administration system which includes the investigating agency (e.g. police, NAB), the prosecution and the judiciary.
The judges cannot do much if the evidence before them is fixed, forged or concocted which can easily be done when the state is not neutral. The investigating agencies in Pakistan are, therefore, replete with police officers who have emulated our judges in 'pragmatism'. The hijacking case against Nawaz Sharif was a particularly brilliant example of incisive investigation.
There were, of course, a minority of police officers who, like judges, stood up and objected to unfair investigations. They have been made horrible examples of and their peers do not even whisper their names for fear that their conscience may be impacted. These were the easiest prey.
Unlike politicians they do not have a party, lawyers or independent incomes behind them.
The press hates the police and the effort to dissect an individual's role behind the uniform requires too much hard work and investigative journalism. These police officers will die unsung. However, the impact of the military's manipulation is visible.
At a national level, one either gets police officers who in situations like May 12 in Karachi avoid confronting killers or act in reverse in Islamabad where they bully the press and the lawyers. Little surprise then that the PPP, which has been at the receiving end of this 'justice system' for the past 30 years, wants another way.
So what happens if you have a criminal administration system which your
country's largest political party regards as untrustworthy and unworkable?
In South Africa, Nelson Mandela as the leader of the country's largest
political party, the African National Congress, faced the same problem about which he was aware.
In the absence of agreed rules of the game during the anti-Apartheid struggle, both parties had taken measures unpalatable in a civilised framework. These were crimes with a purpose which had overridden ordinary law.
The courts dominated by the Apartheid regime's judges would interpret them according to the system they knew — a system that would have Nelson Mandela described as a terrorist. A system of reconciliation under a truth and reconciliation commission was worked out where crimes committed by both sides were identified and the state declared amnesty for the majority of them. The ANC was then given effective power and it has governed reasonably well for a revolutionary party since.
Unfortunately, despite this ordinance, reconciliation between the PPP and the military does not appear to have occurred. The reason is that although very much like the Apartheid regime in South Africa, the military has now come under tremendous international and local pressure to clean up its act, but unlike the Apartheid regime in South Africa it has never really decided to give up or share power.
Shorn of its traditional right-wing allies whose patronage structures are under international investigation the military believes it can use the PPP as its new front.
The NRO appears to have been negotiated by it with this intent. Clearly, the military's friends have produced a badly drafted law without sincerity of political purpose. The constitutional protection and wide ambit that should have blanketed this law is missing. It is very likely to be struck down by the judiciary influenced by the military.
The military still appears to believe that if the ordinance fails it is home and free. This is short-term thinking. The long-term consequences are unnerving. If PPP does not have the opportunity to articulate and then implement a radical programme of social reform because of being stitched up with cases and allegations there will be no good governance.
The people of Pakistan will have no option but to look at the right-wing alternatives. These alternatives have neither the will nor the political vision to implement much-needed reform.The military must buy into the spirit of the ordinance and let the PPP, if successful at the ballot, implement a programme of reform like it did in the 1970s. If the PPP fails, then one can only hope that the dynamic of the failure will create political parties which can rise to the challenge. People may be dubious but this is the only political option for the moment.
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"Pakistan awaits Bhutto"
Former prime minister's exile nears end"
FERIC MARGOLISr
LONDON -- Considering she had just flown in from New York and was about to launch a political revolution in Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto looked remarkably relaxed when we met. Since we have known one another for years, the mood was informal and congenial.
Pakistan's twice former prime minister -- and likely next one -- was cautiously optimistic.
"The situation in Pakistan is ugly," said Bhutto. Days earlier, many of her Pakistan Peoples Party supporters had been beaten with bricks by the police and seriously injured. Pakistan is facing growing violence by Islamic militants and tribal insurgents.
Last month, Pakistan's first female prime minister revealed to this column she would return to Pakistan on Oct. 18. At the time, she still faced serious criminal charges in Pakistan over corruption cases that have dragged on for years. Bhutto denies any guilt and insists the cases were political vendettas.
Last week, Bhutto reaffirmed she would depart London on Oct. 17 and land the next morning in Karachi, the bastion of her political support.
Bhutto vowed she would go ahead even if forces of the military regime headed by President Gen. Pervez Musharraf tried to arrest her. But the next day, after weeks of what she termed "stalling" by Musharraf's U.S.-backed military regime, the corruption charges may have been lifted, opening the way for her legal return. The fate of Pakistan's other main political leader, Nawaz Sharif, who was kicked out when he tried to return recently, remains uncertain.
Musharraf's plummeting domestic support and intensified pressure from Washington are pushing the reluctant general into a deal with old foe Bhutto.
"No, not a deal," insists Bhutto, "a constitutional arrangement."
Whatever you call it, barring potential last-minute snags, it seems the long-anticipated, American-brokered power sharing agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto is close.
"The army would like to distance itself from the perception it is running the country," says Bhutto. "The longer military dictatorship continues, the more we will face violence from extremist groups."
FIGHTING
I asked if the army will fight a national uprising against Musharraf.
"No, the army is highly disciplined. The mainly Punjabi army won't fire on its own people," she predicted, nor would it split.
This week, Musharraf named a loyal ally, military intelligence chief Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, as new armed forces commander, and appointed other loyalists to senior positions. My sources say all were vetted and approved in advance by Washington.
Musharraf may resign as armed forces commander, but he and Washington will still pull the military's strings. Since the military is the only national institution that really works and holds respect, nameplates will change, but the power will remain in the same hands as now.
Benazir Bhutto, outwardly confident and determined, believes she can take charge of turbulent Pakistan in time to ward off an internal explosion or even civil war that would shake South Asia and deprive the U.S. of a key ally.
But during her previous two terms, she was never fully able to grasp the reins of power and constantly thwarted by her generals.
This time around, her position is likely to be even weaker and her powers ill-defined and contested. Musharraf and the Bush administration hope she will provide democratic window-dressing while the military runs the show and fights Islamists and tribesmen.
ARMY AND POLITICS
But Bhutto is determined to get the army out of politics. So who will really be in charge?
And will the Pakistanis accept a new government, hand-crafted by Washington?
"The military is the problem, not solution," she says. "If there is a fair vote early next year, our party (PPP) and its allies will win."
High drama awaits Pakistan on Oct. 18 when Benzair crosses the Rubicon. Don't underestimate her.
As I was leaving London, Benazir Bhutto sent me a message worthy of Rudyard Kipling: "Our next meeting, if not at the foothills of the Khyber Pass, then at the shores of the Arabian Sea."
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"Al Qaeda's challenge and national politics"
Baitullah Mehsud, who pretends to run a Taliban government in South Waziristan but is actually a warlord serving Al Qaeda, has executed three soldiers of the Pakistan army and has vowed to kill more of the 250 he took hostage in September in South Waziristan. The corpses were found with a letter pinned to them saying, "We will gift three bodies every day". Mehsud has more troops in his custody, including eight officers who might be likewise executed in the days to come.
The Pakistan army is fighting a very difficult battle in Waziristan. It is difficult not only because of the terrain and the hostile tribes involved, but because it is backed by dwindling political support in the country. Apart from Ms Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), political leaders have avoided a verbal confrontation with Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the Tribal Areas. Their line of argument is that trouble among the tribes is linked to Pakistan's strategic slavery of the United States, and that trouble will cease once Islamabad's link with Washington is broken.
Not surprisingly, Baitullah Mehsud has threatened suicide attacks against Ms Bhutto, the PPP chairperson, and said that his suicide-bombers are waiting in the wings to "welcome" her when she returns to Pakistan. He said: "We don't accept President General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto because they only protect the US interest and see things through its glasses. They're only acceptable if they wear Pakistani glasses". He is said to have 35,000 armed men under him and, if he is a Pushtun and an Al Qaeda lieutenant, he will not settle for anything less than capitulation from Islamabad.
Most people opposed to the PPP look at Ms Bhutto as a protégée of the United States. Typically in Pakistani politics, public debates are inclined to take no account of the temperament of a political party. This fudging of the ideological distinction is so widespread that many PPP rank and file in Punjab want their leader to switch off the "liberal" character of the party and focus on the illegitimacy of General Musharraf. Yet, if you look at the PPP's voting pattern on human rights bills in parliament, its liberal credentials seem to outshine the reluctant PMLQ's performance. Even during its participation at the APDM summit, it accepted reversion to the 1999 version of the Constitution only if the women's reserved seats and joint electorates were retained.
Is Ms Bhutto's stance fashioned under American diktat and under pressure from General Musharraf who "will save her from going to prison" if she supports him? Most commentators in a highly emotive Pakistani environment will "simplify" the argument by saying she is being led by the nose by US President Bush who wants to save his client in power, General Musharraf, from going under. In this perspective, Ms Bhutto is supposed to have spoken out about the threat of Talibanisation and Al Qaeda, and supported General Musharraf's action against Lal Masjid, only to earn the pleasure of the United States. But the truth is otherwise.
The history of Ms Bhutto's relationship with Al Qaeda is not new. She has written about it in her book and it is known outside Pakistan that she was an early target of Al Qaeda simply because, being a woman leader, she violated the "Islamic" edict subscribed to by Al Qaeda. Indeed, she revealed some years ago that Osama Bin Laden "contributed" $10 million to the IJI campaign against her. One should also recall that it was during the Afghan jihad and, through it, the rise of Al Qaeda and its creed, that Pakistani clergy reached the dubious consensus that a woman could neither be leader of Muslim men nor a Muslim country's prime minister. Ms Bhutto was therefore not wrong in assuming that her party as a liberal force in Pakistan did not stand a chance in the midst of this point of view. America or no America, her enemy number one was Al Qaeda and, linked to it, terrorism in general.
Baitullah Mehsud and many in Pakistan are perhaps greatly put off by the fact that she has played her cards deftly with President Musharraf, who will now need support from liberal quarters if he has to prevent the Pakistan army from retreating from its job of re-establishing the writ of the state in the Tribal Areas. The PMLQ is not willing to go beyond a certain level of pragmatism to support a campaign against anything that smells of religion. The PPP had the option of joining the rightwing religious consensus in the opposition and then hope to survive after the triumph of Talibanisation. But Ms Bhutto did not take that option and finessed most of the national and international power-brokers into backing her strategy. Therefore, the frightened and confused Pakistani liberal should take heart from her success; so should the myriad PPP rank and file who do not understand the real political contest in Pakistan. *
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National Article Summary
FFarhatullah Baberr
Farhatullah Baber writes in his article published in The News "It is said that wisdom dawns upon the unwise also but only after damage has been caused. What did MBB say lately about the IAEA that seems to have let the cat into the pigeons? At the outset she said that the issue of allowing IAEA access to Dr AQ Khan was a hypothetical one and did not arise at this stage.
However, she said her government will cooperate with the IAEA in questioning those who have acknowledged the role in proliferation of nuclear technology. What is wrong with it? Has the government itself not permitted the IAEA to put written questions to Dr AQ Khan, the replies to which are then forwarded to the UN agency? Has Gen Musharraf not admitted in his memoirs sharing 'all information' about the nuclear black Mar et with the international agencies? What must be our central concern protection of those who proliferated or protection of our nuclear assets?
Protection of nuclear assets demands that Pakistan is perceived as a responsible state acquiring nuclear technology for its legitimate defence and economic needs and not for setting up the juma bazaar of nuclear materials and technology. It is in our interest to cooperate with the UN watchdog body to disabuse the notion that any government in the past or any state institution was involved in the nuclear black market.
The protection of our nuclear assets lies in assuring the international community that ours is not a rogue state that protects the proliferators. He writes "Gen Musharraf did the right thing in sharing nuclear black market information with international bodies. But after having informed the IAEA that 18 tons of nuclear materials were clandestinely shipped out of Pakistan supposedly by one person, can MBB be faulted for saying that she will cooperate with the UN in unearthing the black market. Behind lambasting MBB is the lurking fear that there could be more than just one skeleton in the cupboard. Behind it also is the doubt that Gen Musharraf's candid expose of the nuclear black market may not be candid after all. If we have to protect the nuclear assets there is no alternative to take out the black market roots, branches and leaves. The logic of this reasoning will also be accepted like the logic behind the peace process and disbanding the jihadis before it. One only hopes that its wisdom dawns before any damage is done."
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The Costs of Keeping Musharraf
Amir Mir
Commandos of the elite Special
Security Group (SSG) had gathered as
usual at the mess of the Tarbela
Ghazi army camp, 100 km south of
Islamabad. It was the night of
September 13, 2007, and nothing was
out of place: the officers sat down
for their dinner, talking shop and
cracking jokes. As the evening
progressed, an 18-year-old boy
entered the dining hall, mingling
with the mess employees. The boy
gingerly walked to the middle of the
hall. Heads turned at the crazed cry
of Allah-o-Akbar. Then came a
blinding flash and a deafening bang,
followed by three successive
explosions as the gas cylinders in
the adjoining kitchen also exploded.
The pall of smoke soon lifted to
reveal headless bodies, torn limbs,
a chilling death toll of 22 highly
trained commandos of the SSG, to
which General Musharraf himself
belonged, and which was specially
trained by the US Special Forces for
carrying out covert operations and
counter-terrorism and
counter-insurgency operations across
Pakistan, especially in the
trouble-ridden tribal belt of
Pakistan.
The suicide bomber’s sister, it was
later found by the investigation
agencies, was killed during the
infamous ‘Operation Silence’ carried
out against militants in the Lal
Masjid by the Karar Company of the
SSG Brigade. Two months before
suffering 22 casualties in the
Tarbela Ghazi suicide bombing, the
elite SSG had lost 10 of its
commandos, including a colonel,
during an intense week-long gun
battle with the fanatic clerics and
students of the Lal Masjid and its
adjacent Jamia Hafsa religious
seminary. The incident is being
described by analysts as the biggest
single loss suffered by the SSG
during peace and war time since the
creation of Pakistan. Barring the
Balochistan insurgency in the 1970s,
Pakistan’s history has never
witnessed such a staggering number
of security officials slain in such
a short span of time as in the
tribal areas. After suffering such a
huge loss, it is not hard to imagine
the disheartening effect on the
morale of the elite force commandos,
who used to take pride in their
association with the SSG. The
catastrophe has happened at a time
when the country is being ruled by
the first commando president – Chief
of Army Staff General Pervez
Musharraf.
These were not the only losses
suffered by the once fearless SSG in
recent times. It has suffered severe
losses in the Waziristan tribal
region as well. In the second week
of September, at least 15 SSG
commandos went missing after being
airdropped in the forested Shawal
valley in North Waziristan to carry
out a military operation against the
Islamic militants. Their bodies were
eventually retrieved through a
prayer-leader in North Waziristan,
who urged the militants to hand over
the remains of the soldiers to him.
The Tarbela Ghazi deadly suicide
bombing was not an isolated act of
terrorism. From the time Operation
Silence was launched against the Lal
Masjid (July 3-10) and hailed as a
success, the Pakistan Army has been
racked by suicide bombings, ambushes
and abductions. Glancing at the
figures since July 2007, it
transpires that 396 people have been
killed and 886 others injured
between January 1, 2007 and
September 15, 2007 in 36 incidents
of suicide bombings across Pakistan.
Those killed since the launching of
the operation include 121 military
and paramilitary personnel, 102
policemen and 98 innocent civilians.
Between January 1, 2007 and July 3,
2007, before the Lal Masjid
operation was launched in Islamabad,
75 people were killed and 201
injured in 12 incidents of suicide
bombings across Pakistan. After the
launching of the Lal Masjid
operation on July 4, a total of 321
people have been killed and 685
others injured in 24 incidents of
suicide bombings all over Pakistan.
Worryingly, the flurry of attacks on
the army is no longer confined to
the tribal areas on the Afghan
border, where the soldiers and the
militants have been battling it out
since 2002, but has had its
devastating echo in and around
Islamabad. For instance, twin
suicide attacks on September 4
killed at least 33 in the garrison
city of Rawalpindi – the first on a
bus belonging to the ISI, the other
targeting the car of an army
officer. And to think the ISI’s
brief is to track and bust terror
networks. The spate of attacks on
the security forces has greatly
demoralised the soldiers, eroded the
traditional respect for the army and
bolstered the resolve of the Islamic
militants.
The bloody suicide bombing at the
Punjab Regiment’s training ground at
Dargai (on November 8, 2006 that
killed 42 recruits), the attack by a
suicide bomber riding a car near
Miranshah in North Waziristan (on
July 14, 2007 that killed 26
soldiers), another suicide bomb
attack inside the Kohat cantonment
mosque (on July 19, 2007 that killed
15 military men), the Kharian
Cantonment suicide bombing (on March
29, 2007 that killed three army
soldiers), two suicide bombings
targeting two military convoys at
two different places in North
Waziristan (on August 24, 2007 that
killed seven soldiers), two more
suicide attacks near the GHQ – heart
of the Pakistan Army (on September
4, 2007 that killed 33 people and
wounded 66, many of them staffers of
the ISI), all point to the hard fact
that Islamic militants carefully
select their targets and do much
homework to cause maximum damage to
the Pakistan Army.
The spate of suicide bombings is
still on, with the most recent
target being the Tarbela Ghazi
headquarters of the quick reaction
force of the SSG. That the attack
occurred in one of the country’s
most secured areas is shocking.
Tarbela is a highly sensitive area
because of the location of the
country’s biggest dam, known as the
Tarbela Dam or the National Dam. It
was the first ever incident of its
kind in Tarbela Ghazi, which is far
away from the troubled tribal areas
of Waziristan. Amidst all these
suicide bombings against the
security forces, the militant force
of Baitullah Mehsud in South
Waziristan on August 27 took hostage
around 300 soldiers of the Pakistan
Army in the tribal area of Momi
Karam, dominated by the Mehsud
tribe. The soldiers were travelling
in a convoy of trucks when the
militants hiding in the surrounding
mountains intercepted the fleet near
Wana and took them hostage. The
troops did not offer resistance when
challenged by Mehsud’s men,
primarily because of their low
morale that is coming under intense
scrutiny, though Musharraf has
repeatedly claimed that he is
defending Pakistan’s vital national
interests by battling al Qaeda and
the Taliban-linked terrorists.
Then there are media reports that
hundreds of Pakistani soldiers
deployed in the Waziristan tribal
region have refused to fight against
the militants in the area, saying
they do not want to fight against
their own people. According to
well-placed military sources in
Islamabad, those mediating the
release of over 300 soldiers of the
army, taken hostage by the Mehsud
militants in South Waziristan, have
said the captured soldiers had
actually surrendered voluntarily as
they were not ready to fight against
their fellow Muslim brothers.
Quoting one of the 26 surrendered
soldiers from the paramilitary
Frontier Corps, who were released by
the militants on September 20, a
military official was quoted by a
foreign news agency as saying that
he did not desert the force because
he feared death. The report said,
“He [the military official] actually
did so because he was not sure
whether the ongoing fighting in
Waziristan was Islamic or not. The
man, who refused to serve in the
tribal areas, claimed that the same
query was haunting many other
soldiers and the confusion was
stopping them from putting up a
tough fight against Islamic
militants in the tribal area.”
Many retired Pakistani generals have
already questioned the will of the
soldiers to fight what they believe
to be ‘someone else’s war’, chiefly
because they are not convinced of
fighting against and killing their
own people. The morale of the army
troops deployed in the tribal areas
can further be gauged from the fact
that many of them usually avoid
wearing military uniforms nowadays
in the tough areas of Swat, Tank,
Dera Ismail Khan, Mohmand, Bajaur,
Mir Ali, Miranshah, etc. After
suffering the heaviest casualties
ever sustained by the Pakistani
security forces during peacetime,
many security personnel in the
tribal areas have gone on long
leaves. With the attacks on the
security forces now becoming
menacing by the day, it is just a
matter of time that anyone, just
about anyone, wearing a military
uniform will be attacked. These
developments must be highly
disturbing for the army as an
institution, which must realise that
the costs of keeping Musharraf in
power evidently outweigh the
benefits.
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US Should Refrain Helping Musharraf
Retain Power
Schaffer
In
order to manage the transition in a
post-Musharraf setup and protect
America's interest, the United
States should refrain from helping
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf
to retain his hold on the power, a
former US Ambassador has said.
"At
some point the pressures in Pakistan
will lead to a change in government,
and the US will have someone else to
work with," a former US ambassador
and director of South Asia Program
at the Washington- based Center for
Strategic & International Studies (CSIS),
Teresita Schaffer has said.
"This may take a while, but the
trends inexorably point in this
direction. If we hold to our present
course, the United States will be
blamed for the failings of the
outgoing regime, as well as for
imposing an unpopular government on
Pakistan," Schaffer, former US
ambassador to Sri Lanka, said in an
article for CSIS -- a private
institution which focusses on
International Public Policy issues.
"The
United States needs to manage the
transition to an eventual post-Musharraf
setup, so as to protect America's
enduring interests in this volatile
part of the world."
The
US, hoping to keep the army general
firmly in the saddle and anchored to
a moderate partner, backed
Musharraf's long-running dialogue
with former prime minister Benazir
Bhutto, the former ambassador said.
Although some see a Musharraf-Bhutto
deal as a transition to democracy
but the general's temperament and
the logic of his current situation
both argue against this, she said.
"Musharraf
speaks of 'unity of command' as
hallmark of his leadership. That is
hard to reconcile with real sharing
of power," she said.
"After arresting the leadership of (Nawaz)
Sharif's party, would Musharraf and
the army allow his other rival to
win a major electoral victory?"
The
army general has certainly benefited
by the divisions among his rival
political parties, however, she
pointed out that the US will not
gain much from its political
maneuvering.
"The
'kinder, gentler' government is
gone; Musharraf will now rule by
more autocratic methods," she said.
"There are ample indications that
major demonstrations or a judicial
decision invalidating his election
in uniform may lead Musharraf to
declare the state of emergency
Secretary Rice talked him out of a
few weeks ago."
Under the current course of the US
government, the top American
priorities -- Pakistan's
participation in US' war against
terrorism and its political support
in stabilizing Afghanistan -- will
become more of a US war from which a
new Pakistan government will want to
dissociate itself to show country's
independence, she said.
The
army, she said, will welcome the
chance to backout of the "American"
operations in the frontier, where
they have lost men and prestige.
"Pakistan will be better able to
pursue the policies that really
matter to us if its leaders are free
of the taint of being "Washington's
creatures."
Saying that it's not too late for
the US to focus on managing the
inevitable transition, Schaffer
said, "We will of course continue to
work closely with Musharraf as long
as he is in power. But we should
make clear that we will work with
anyone who can win a genuinely free
election and will fight against
terrorists that threaten Pakistan's
society."
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